Exploring the Linkages Between Different Types of Drought and Their Impacts on Crop Production in Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

Drought is a perilous agrometeorological phenomenon that often causes crop damage in arid and semiarid regions vulnerable to climate variability. However, accurate drought monitoring remains deficient in many countries, including Kyrgyzstan, and the interconnections between several types of drought and contributions to crop yield are still unclear. Hence, we aimed to determine the propagation time in three types of drought (meteorological drought, soil drought, and vegetation drought) for understanding interconnections of them. Moreover, we focused on comprehensively evaluation the performance of multiple drought indices for each type over the complex terrain of Kyrgyzstan, especially for drought index of synergistic land surface temperature and vegetation conditions information. The results demonstrated that standard precipitation index (SPI) effectively detected meteorological drought, while the vegetation health index (VHI) coupled with temperature data was optimal for vegetation drought monitoring in Kyrgyzstan. Furthermore, our findings indicated a 1-month response time for soil drought at a 10 cm depth to SPI, and a 4-month response time at a 40 cm depth to meteorological drought (SPI). The response time of VHI to soil drought condition index (SMCI) was approximately 1 month, regardless of whether the soil drought occurred at a depth of 10 or 40 cm. In general, the response time of VHI to SPI was 3 months. Finally, by analyzing the correlation between crop yield productivity and drought indices, we discovered that the crop yield predictions by the three types of drought were differential and complex, but VHI was the most effective index. At the same time, VHIacc(May–Sep.), SMCIr(0–40 cm)_May–Sep., and SPI5_Aug. have different contributions to crop yield variations, and these are also differences in their impacts on different crops and provinces. The synergistic effect of the three types of drought may significantly improve crop yield prediction in Kyrgyzstan in future studies. These findings may significantly contribute to drought prevention and mitigation in drought-prone Central Asian countries.

Keywords

• Crop yield prediction
• meteorological drought
• soil drought
• vegetation drought
• visible-thermal remote sensing