IPSIM-Cirsium, a qualitative expert-based model to predict infesta-tions of Cirsium arvense

Abstract

In a context of recall of glyphosate and questioning about the intensive use of ploughing, tools are needed to offer an alternative for perennial weed control. Perennial weeds are a major problem in production fields, organic or conventional farming. To control them, a system approach is required. This is the aim of the work package Modelling of the European project AC/DC-weeds. Multi-attribute qualitative modelling, performed thanks to IPSIM (Injury Profile SIMulator), enables the evaluation of weed infestation for three perennial weeds included one Cirsium arvense. The models consider the effect of weather, soil and cropping practices, and their interaction on weed infestation. The model outputs were confronted to independent field observations collected across 6 fields, over a 16- year period in 3 sites. IPSIM-Cirsium showed a satisfactory predictive quality (accuracy of 78.2%) IPSIM-Cirsium can be used as a tool for crop advisors and researchers to assist the design of systems less reliant on herbicides, for farmers and advisers to assess ex-ante prototypes of cropping systems, and for teachers as an educational tool to share agroecological weed management knowledge.

Keywords

• agroecological crop protection
• canada thistle
• cropping practices
• injury profile simulator
• integrated weed management
• qualitative modelling
• soil
• weather