Cogent Food & Agriculture (Dec 2023)
Yesterday, today, and tomorrow’s fish consumption: Analysis of present and prospective fish consumption in Ghana by 2030
Abstract
AbstractThe wellbeing of millions of Ghanaians hinges on food security. As the country strives to meet the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Agenda 2030, fish consumption must be sustained. Predicting the future trends of fish consumption and supply is of significant importance to policy-makers and fisheries managers to better anticipate future demands, plan actions to effectively meet them and sustainably manage the fisheries. The present study seeks to quantify the future and historical fish consumption (consumption per capita and apparent consumption), production (captures, aquaculture, and commodities) and fish trade (imports) estimate and projections from 2017 to 2030. We obtained data from the Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture Development, Fisheries Scientific Survey Division, Ghana Statistical Services, United Nations International Trade Statistics Database, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, World Bank, FishStatJ, Food and Agriculture Organization online query panels, and other online publications. Our analyses showed that fish consumption will continue to fluctuate with an expected highest peak of 905,400 tonnes by 2028 and drop to 889,096 by 2030. Overall consumption is expected to average 839,272 tonnes from 2019 to 2030, growing at an annual rate of 0.61% from 2017 to 2030. Per capita fish consumption is expected to decrease slightly, reaching 23.93 kg by 2030. Growth in capture fisheries will be very slow at 0.06%, while aquaculture is expected to grow at 6.58%. In terms of fish supply, capture fisheries, aquaculture, and imports are expected to contribute 45%, 9%, and 46%, respectively. Pelagic fish import is expected to be 392,450 tonnes, making up 96.4% of all fish imports by 2030. The need for Ghana to be self-sufficient in fish production and reduce imports by sustainably managing the small pelagic fishery should be paramount. To achieve sustainable fish production, supply, and consumption, the study suggests that there is a need to urgently accelerate aquaculture development, reduce unstainable harvest levels, and ensure general improvement in the fisheries management practices.
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