Decline of onset-to-diagnosis interval and its impacts on clinical outcome of COVID-19 in China: a nation-wide observational study

Abstract

Abstract Background To quantitatively assess the impact of the onset-to-diagnosis interval (ODI) on severity and death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Methods This retrospective study was conducted based on the data on COVID-19 cases of China over the age of 40 years reported through China’s National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System from February 5, 2020 to October 8, 2020. The impacts of ODI on severe rate (SR) and case fatality rate (CFR) were evaluated at individual and population levels, which was further disaggregated by sex, age and geographic origin. Results As the rapid decline of ODI from around 40 days in early January to < 3 days in early March, both CFR and SR of COVID-19 largely dropped below 5% in China. After adjusting for age, sex, and region, an effect of ODI on SR was observed with the highest OR of 2.95 (95% CI 2.37‒3.66) at Day 10–11 and attributable fraction (AF) of 29.1% (95% CI 22.2‒36.1%) at Day 8–9. However, little effect of ODI on CFR was observed. Moreover, discrepancy of effect magnitude was found, showing a greater effect from ODI on SR among patients of male sex, younger age, and those cases in Wuhan. Conclusion The ODI was significantly associated with the severity of COVID-19, highlighting the importance of timely diagnosis, especially for patients who were confirmed to gain increased benefit from early diagnosis to some extent.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Onset-to-diagnosis interval
• Severe rate
• Case fatality rate