Comprehensive assessment and analysis of urban resilience based on fusion modeling–taking guilin as an example

Abstract

Dramatic global climate change has led to an increase in multiple and uncertain risks to urban safety and sustainable development, and cities urgently need to enhance their comprehensive response capacity. Urban resilience emphasizes the symbiosis with risks, which can improve the risk management effectiveness of urban systems in complex and uncertain environments, and meets the social needs of disaster normalization. Guilin has long been plagued by frequent floods and droughts, which have caused significant economic losses, and exacerbated the city's development load. This study constructs an urban resilience indicator system from five dimensions: economic, social, ecological, engineering and disaster, and uses the CRITIC-ωTOPSIS method to solve the problem of weight distribution of indicators, highlight the influence of indicator weights on the urban toughness scores over the years, and quantitatively assess the urban toughness of Guilin from 2000 to 2023, revealing its spatial–temporal differentiation characteristics. The results show that:(1) During the period 2000-2023, Guilin's urban resilience as a whole shows a fluctuating ‘V-shaped’ development.(2) Guilin City demonstrates clear evolutionary resilience, with its four area types undergoing leapfrogging and transformation across both time and space. This study offers key theoretical and practical guidance for Guilin's sustainable development.

Keywords

• Urban resilience
• sustainable development
• integrated assessment
• Guilin City