Predicting the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on Mycoplasma pneumoniae in the United States
Sang Woo Park,
Brooklyn Noble,
Emily Howerton,
Bjarke F. Nielsen,
Sarah Lentz,
Lilliam Ambroggio,
Samuel Dominguez,
Kevin Messacar,
Bryan T. Grenfell
Affiliations
Sang Woo Park
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA; Corresponding author at: Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
Brooklyn Noble
bioMérieux, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
Emily Howerton
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Bjarke F. Nielsen
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Sarah Lentz
bioMérieux, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
Lilliam Ambroggio
Department of Pediatrics, Sections of Emergency Medicine and Hospital Medicine, University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children’s Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USA
Samuel Dominguez
Department of Pediatrics, Section of Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children’s Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USA
Kevin Messacar
Department of Pediatrics, Section of Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children’s Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, USA
Bryan T. Grenfell
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
The introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 disrupted circulation of many respiratory pathogens and eventually caused large, delayed outbreaks, owing to the build up of the susceptible pool during the intervention period. In contrast to other common respiratory pathogens that re-emerged soon after the NPIs were lifted, longer delays (> 3 years) in the outbreaks of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (Mp), a bacterium commonly responsible for respiratory infections and pneumonia, have been reported in Europe and Asia. As Mp cases are continuing to increase in the US, predicting the size of an imminent outbreak is timely for public health agencies and decision makers. Here, we use simple mathematical models to provide robust predictions about a large Mp outbreak ongoing in the US. Our model further illustrates that NPIs and waning immunity are important factors in driving long delays in epidemic resurgence.
