Variability and Factors of Influence of Extreme Wet and Dry Events in Northern Mexico
Omar Llanes-Cárdenas,
Alberto Gaxiola-Hernández,
Rosa D. Estrella-Gastelum,
Mariano Norzagaray-Campos,
Enrique Troyo-Diéguez,
Ernestina Pérez-González,
Rosario Ruiz-Guerrero,
Manuel de J. Pellegrini Cervantes
Affiliations
Omar Llanes-Cárdenas
Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional, Unidad Sinaloa (CIIDIR-IPN-Sinaloa), Boulevard Juan de Diós Bátiz Paredes # 250, Guasave, Sinaloa, Mexico C.P. 81101, Mexico
Alberto Gaxiola-Hernández
Facultad de Ingeniería Mochis, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa. Fuente de Poseidón y calle Ángel Flores S/N, Los Mochis, Sinaloa C.P. 81223, Mexico
Rosa D. Estrella-Gastelum
Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional, Unidad Sinaloa (CIIDIR-IPN-Sinaloa), Boulevard Juan de Diós Bátiz Paredes # 250, Guasave, Sinaloa, Mexico C.P. 81101, Mexico
Mariano Norzagaray-Campos
Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional, Unidad Sinaloa (CIIDIR-IPN-Sinaloa), Boulevard Juan de Diós Bátiz Paredes # 250, Guasave, Sinaloa, Mexico C.P. 81101, Mexico
Enrique Troyo-Diéguez
Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste (CIBNOR-La Paz), Av. Instituto Politécnico Nacional 195, Playa Palo de Santa Rita Sur, La Paz, B.C.S. México C.P. 23096, Mexico
Ernestina Pérez-González
Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigación para el Desarrollo Integral Regional, Unidad Sinaloa (CIIDIR-IPN-Sinaloa), Boulevard Juan de Diós Bátiz Paredes # 250, Guasave, Sinaloa, Mexico C.P. 81101, Mexico
Rosario Ruiz-Guerrero
Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Centro de Investigación e Innovación Tecnológica. Cerrada de Cecati S/N. Col. Santa Catarina Azcapotzalco, Ciudad de México 02250, Mexico
Manuel de J. Pellegrini Cervantes
Facultad de Ingeniería Mochis, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa. Fuente de Poseidón y calle Ángel Flores S/N, Los Mochis, Sinaloa C.P. 81223, Mexico
The goal of this study was to generate a method to examine seasonal variability by climatic classification and Pacific seasonal factors to identify extreme wet and dry events in northern Mexico for the period 1952–2013. Using the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) on scales of three months (SPEI-3) and 24 months (SPEI-24), the variability of extreme wet and dry events were measured. The SPEI-3 and SPEI-24 anomalies were divided by the standard deviation (standardized Z anomalies). A Pearson correlation for SPEI-3, SPEI-24, Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the oceanic El Niño index (ONI) was applied. Wet extreme events were recorded in 1954, 1968, 1976–1977, 1981, 1984, 1986 and 2003, of which the greatest magnitude was recorded in 1984 for the Sinaloa-very dry region. Extreme dry events were recorded in 1952–1953, 1990, 1997, 2003 and 2011–2013. The Z anomalies of the wet extreme events observed coincide with +PDO phase anomalies. In this study, the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) has little influence on wet and dry extreme events in northern Mexico. The negative phase anomalies of sea surface temperature (−SST) in the equatorial and eastern Pacific are indicators of extreme wet events. This study shows for the first time the influence of the PDO and the ONI on seasonal variability of extreme wet and dry events by climatic classification through the SPEI index in northern Mexico.
