The Radial Growth of Schrenk Spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) Records the Hydroclimatic Changes in the Chu River Basin over the Past 175 Years

Abstract

The Chu River is one of the most important rivers in arid Central Asia. Its discharge is affected by climate change. Here, we establish a tree-ring chronology for the upper Chu River Basin and analyze the relationships between radial growth, climate, and discharge. The results show that the radial growth of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) is controlled by moisture. We also reconstruct a 175-year standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the Chu River Basin. A comparison of the reconstructed and observed indices reveal that 39.5% of the variance occurred during the calibration period of 1952–2014. The SPEI reconstruction and discharge variability of the Chu River show consistent long-term change. They also show that the Chu River Basin became increasingly dry between the 1840s and the 1960s, with a significant drought during the 1970s. A long and rapid wetting period occurred between the 1970s and the 2000s, and was followed by increasing drought since 2004. The change in the SPEI in the Chu River Basin is consistent with records of long-term precipitation, SPEI and Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI) in other proximate regions of the western Tianshan Mountains. The hydroclimatic change of the Chu River Basin may be associated with westerly wind. This study is helpful for disaster prevention and water resource management in arid central Asia.

Keywords

• tree rings
• Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.)
• hydroclimatology
• Chu River
• Tianshan Mountains
• climate change
• Central Asia