The Trump Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review: Back to Great Power Competition

Abstract

The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) covers all aspects of nuclear weapons policy – the role of nuclear weapons, the conditions under which the United States would consider the use of these weapons, the operational aspects of nuclear planning, force structure requirements, and key decisions on the supporting infrastructure. This document does not only send a deterrence message to potential adversaries, but it is also an important reassurance to the allies and partners of the US. A NPR is traditionally in effect for a period of 5–10 years. The Trump administration’s 2018 NPR shows many continuities with previous strategies. However, it also implemented important changes, especially with regards to the number and composition of nuclear forces. The new NPR re-introduced two low-yield warhead types in response to the deteriorating relations with Russia and China. Unlike the former NPR, it put great power confrontation in the center of the document, instead of strategic stability. This shift in focus reflects a renewed emphasis on nuclear deterrence and modernizations, and a sceptical approach towards arms control measures. This paper examines how the administration’s deterrence policy has changed vis-à-vis Moscow and Beijing, why these changes were implemented, and how this shift affects the security of the allies of the US The author argues that the justification of the proposed modernization programs is questionable, and these steps might lead to a renewed arms race in low-yield nuclear capabilities. This could force Russia and China to lower the nuclear threshold, undermining the security of the US and its allies, and also weakening alliance cohesion and solidarity.

Keywords

• Nuclear strategy
• escalation
• extended deterrence
• NATO
• Nuclear Posture Review