A Quantitative Study on the Impact of China’s Dual Credit Policy on the Development of New Energy Industry Based on Taylor Expansion Description and Cross-Entropy Theory

Abstract

The Dual Credit Policy is an important policy to promote the development of new energy vehicles unique to China. There is a lack of research that intuitively reflects the impact of the Dual Credit Policy on industrial development through an industry-based factual comparison of this policy. Based on the Taylor expansion and Cross-Entropy description, this article obtains the development regression function by the quantitative analysis of five indicators—the number of new energy vehicle-related patents, sales volume, production volume, the number of newly registered enterprises, infrastructure construction (the number of charging piles) before and after the implementation of the policy, and describes them quantitatively using the Taylor expansion to obtain the CPTI index. The CPCEI index is obtained by calculating the Cross-Entropy of the distribution of each indicator before and after policy implementation. The above two indices were compared for the growth trend and growth quantity, respectively. Finally, the following conclusions were obtained: 1. the Dual Credit Policy is more significantly promoted at the market level than the impact on the technical level; 2. although there is also incentive in infrastructure construction, it cannot fully react to the market demand; 3. the number of start-up’s operating in the new energy field increases, but the overall growth trend gradually slows down and fails to significantly change the existing structure of the market. This study suggests that the government should launch a special incentive policy for charging piles, and new energy manufacturers should expand their production capacity to meet the market demand.

Keywords

• Dual Credit Policy
• policy impacts
• Taylor series expansion
• Cross-Entropy