جغرافیا و توسعه (Sep 2015)
Study the Trend of Overnight Temperature Changes of Kerman Province and its Impressibility from Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) During the Past Half Century
Abstract
Scientific investigations in the field of climatic trends indicate that today, changes are happening faster than the previous periods. Most of the world researchers consider the air temperature and precipitation as an instance for proving their own hypothesis of climatic changes. In this research, for statistical clarification of climatic changes in geographical region in Kerman province, the data of average temperature of monthly night of 17 stations inside and outside of the province during the time interval of 1961-2010 have been used. Through using Kriging interpolation, the station data were converted to cells with dimension 8*8 and by using Mann-Kendall test, the zoning plan of the trend was drawn for each month. To evaluate the impact of GIS activity, the cell's trend was studied. To study the impressibility of solar activity on climatic changes of Kerman province, monthly data of TotalSolarIrradiance, wavelet analysis method and comparing of drawn diagrams have been used. The results showed that during the statistical period, on average annually 66% of the province region have experienced climatic changes with increasing trend.The highest and lowest extent of dominant positive trend was occurred in summer and winter respectively. Also an increase of 2.62 degree of overnight temperature have been seen in Kerman province regions. Plains with a height of less than 2000 meters often have an increasing trend, western foothills of the province with height 2000-3000 meters have a decreasing trend and a strip along north west– south east direction which passes through the center of the province has not been affected by such climatic changes. The greatest influence of the 11-years cycle of solar activities has occurred in October, so that the occurred trend in night temperature of October in 1961-2000 can be attributed with a confidence of 95% to the main activities of solar activities. July is at the next level of impressibility and then December and September.
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