Applying Machine Learning Methods to Improve Rainfall–Runoff Modeling in Subtropical River Basins

Abstract

Machine learning models’ performance in simulating monthly rainfall–runoff in subtropical regions has not been sufficiently investigated. In this study, we evaluate the performance of six widely used machine learning models, including Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs), Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), LASSO Regression (LR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM), against a rainfall–runoff model (WAPABA model) in simulating monthly streamflow across three subtropical sub-basins of the Pearl River Basin (PRB). The results indicate that LSTM generally demonstrates superior capability in simulating monthly streamflow than the other five machine learning models. Using the streamflow of the previous month as an input variable improves the performance of all the machine learning models. When compared with the WAPABA model, LSTM demonstrates better performance in two of the three sub-basins. For simulations in wet seasons, LSTM shows slightly better performance than the WAPABA model. Overall, this study confirms the suitability of machine learning methods in rainfall–runoff modeling at the monthly scale in subtropical basins and proposes an effective strategy for improving their performance.

Keywords

• data-driven models
• machine learning
• rainfall–runoff model
• subtropical basins
• performance evaluation