Permanent Basic Cultivated Land Delineation Based on Population Projection and Food Demand--Taking Wuhan City as an Example

Abstract

The reasonable delineation of permanent basic cultivated land is of great meaning to guarantee China’s food security and promote the long-term social stability and sustainable economic development of China. This paper addresses the current problem of unreasonable delineation of permanent basic cultivated land that may result from not considering future population demand factors. Taking Wuhan city as an example, this paper derives permanent basic cultivated land’s area demand based on population projections, combined with per capita food demand, and further integrates comprehensive quality evaluation of arable land to delineate the quantity and location of basic cultivated land in Wuhan city in 2035. The study obtained that: (1) the population of Wuhan GM (1,1) predicts that the population of Wuhan in 2035 is 16,041,900 and the basic cultivated land’s demanded area is 239,559.55hm²; (2) the medial score of comprehensive quality of cultivated land in Wuhan is 66.23, with good comprehensive quality, and the mass of arable land varies widely among the lower districts. (3) The cultivated land with the best overall quality will be allocated as basic cultivated land, and the final area of basic cultivated land in Wuhan in 2035 will be 239,797.26hm², which can meet the population demand of Wuhan in 2035, mainly distributed in Jiangxia District, Xinzhou District and Huangpi District.