The preoperative scoring system combining neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and CA19-9 predicts the long-term prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients undergoing curative liver resection

Abstract

Abstract Background This study aims to investigate preoperative prognostic factors available for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) patients and propose a new preoperative prognostic scoring system for ICC that combines CA19-9 and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Methods In this retrospective analysis, 1728 patients diagnosed with ICC and undergoing curative liver resections were studied. This study employed univariate and multivariate Cox regression to find factors affecting recurrence and overall survival (OS), and furthermore assessed how preoperative models influenced tumor traits and postoperative recurrence. Results The results of the multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that two preoperative variables, NLR and Ca19-9, were independent risk factors affecting postoperative recurrence and OS in ICC patients. Based on this data, assigning a score of 0 (NLR ≤ 2.4 and Ca19-9 ≤ 37U/ml) or 1 (NLR > 2.4 and Ca19-9 > 37U/ml) to these two factors, a preoperative prognostic score was derived. According to the scoring model, patients were divided into three groups: 0 points (low-risk group), 1 point (intermediate-risk group), and 2 points (high-risk group). The 5-year recurrence and OS rates for the three groups were 56.6%, 68.2%, 77.8%, and 56.8%, 40.6%, 27.6%, respectively, with all P values < 0.001. Furthermore, high-risk group patients were more prone to early recurrence (early recurrence rates for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups were 56.8%, 51.5%, and 37.1%, respectively, P < 0.001) and extrahepatic metastasis (extrahepatic metastasis rates for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups were 31.7%, 26.4%, and 15.4%, respectively, P < 0.001). In terms of tumor characteristics, high-risk group patients had larger tumor diameters and were more likely to experience microvascular invasion, lymph node metastasis, and perineural invasion. Conclusions The predictive capacity of postoperative recurrence and OS rates in ICC patients is effectively captured by the preoperative scoring system incorporating NLR and CA19-9 levels.

Keywords

• Neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio
• Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma
• Prognosis
• Liver resection
• Scoring system