Verification of operational Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF) for a regional warning system – the AMPHORE case studies in the upper Po River

Abstract

In recent years, the interest in the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to hydrometeorological events has grown due to the increased frequency of extreme rainstorms. Several research projects have been developed to test hydrometeorological models for real-time flood forecasting. However, flood forecasting systems are still not widespread in operational context. Real-world examples are mainly dedicated to the use of flood routing model, best suited for large river basins. For small basins, it is necessary to take advantage of the lag time between the onset of a rainstorm and the beginning of the hydrograph rise, with the use of rainfall-runoff transformation models. Nevertheless, when the lag time is very short, a rainfall predictor is required, as a result, meteorological models are often coupled with hydrological simulation. While this chaining allows floods to be forecasted on small catchments with response times ranging from 6 to 12 h it, however, causes new problems for the reliability of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and also creates additional accuracy problems for space and time scales. The aim of this work is to evaluate the degree to which uncertain QPF affects the reliability of the whole hydro-meteorological alert system for small catchments. For this purpose, a distributed hydrological model (FEST-WB) was developed and analysed in operational setting experiments, i.e. the hydrological model was forced with rain observation until the time of forecast and with the QPF for the successive period, as is usual in real-time procedures. Analysis focuses on the AMPHORE case studies in Piemonte in November 2002.