Научно-аналитический вестник Института Европы РАН (Apr 2022)
CENTENARY OF THE RAPPAL TREATY: ANNIVERSARY IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE CRISIS OF ECONOMIC RELATIONS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND GERMANY
Abstract
April 16, 2022 marks the 100th anniversary of the Treaty of Rapallo, concluded between Russia and Germany during the Genoa Conference. His fate and role is still controversial. Particular attention is paid to the «spirit of Rapallo» – a realistic and pragmatic idea of peaceful development in the context of today’s increased politicization and curtailment of Russian-German economic relations. We consider that following a direct decrease in mutual trade the very significance of Russian-German economic cooperation is further underestimated emotionally and subjectively. Based on a cross-country cross-sectoral analysis, the paper analyzes the interdependence of the key economies of Russia and Germany are presented. We identified the key import positions of both countries. It is emphasized that a purely quantitative calculation of the reduction of ties may be insufficient, since it does not take into account the cascading economic effects generated from supply chains. Using results of surveys of the German business community, we assessed the strength of the sanctions measures introduced with the active support of Germany against Russia regarding the disconnection from the SWIFT system, the freezing of financial accounts, the measures introduced against the Central Bank of Russia – up to the freezing in principle of economic relations between countries are presented. The author concludes that the anniversary of the Rapallo Treaty, for objective reasons of the military-political situation, remained in the shadows and cannot again put forward considerations for constructive cooperation. Most likely, in the expert community, a reference to it may have an impact on western companies in order to prevent a complete break in business relations with Russian companies.
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