The global impact of household contact management for children on multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis cases, deaths, and health-system costs in 2019: a modelling study

Abstract

Summary: Background: Estimates suggest that at least 30 000 children develop multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis each year. Despite household contact management (HCM) being widely recommended, it is rarely done. Methods: We used mathematical modelling to evaluate the potential country-level and global effects and cost-effectiveness of multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis HCM for children younger than 15 years who are living with a person with newly diagnosed multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. We compared a baseline of no HCM with several HCM strategies and tuberculosis preventive therapy regimens, calculating the effect on multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis cases, deaths, and health-system costs. All HCM strategies involved the screening of children for prevalent tuberculosis disease but with tuberculosis preventive therapy either not given or targeted dependent on age, HIV status, and result of tuberculin skin test. We evaluated the use of fluoroquinolones (ie, levofloxacin and moxifloxacin), delamanid, and bedaquiline as tuberculosis preventive therapy. Findings: Compared with a baseline without HCM, HCM for all adults diagnosed with multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in 2019 would have entailed screening 227 000 children (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 205 000–252 000) younger than 15 years globally, and averted 2350 tuberculosis deaths (1940–2790), costing an additional US$63 million (74–95 million). If all the children within the household who had been in contact with the person with multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis received tuberculosis preventive therapy with levofloxacin, 5620 incident tuberculosis cases (95% UI 4540–6890) and an additional 1240 deaths (970–1540) would have been prevented. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were lower than half of per-capita gross domestic product for most interventions in most countries. Targeting only children younger than 5 years and those living with HIV reduced the number of incident cases and deaths averted, but improved cost-effectiveness. Tuberculosis preventive therapy with delamanid increased the effect, in terms of reduced incidence and mortality, compared with levofloxacin. Interpretation: HCM for patients with multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis is cost-effective in most settings and could avert a substantial proportion of multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis cases and deaths in children globally. Funding: UK Medical Research Council.