Patients with newly diagnosed cervical cancer should be screened for anal human papilloma virus and anal dysplasia: Results of a pilot study using a STELLA computer simulation and economic model

Abstract

Background: Women with cervical cancer often have anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and anal dysplasia. However, effectiveness of anal HPV screening is unknown. Methods: A dynamic model was constructed using STELLA. Populations are represented as ''stocks'' that change according to model rates. Initial anal cytology in new cervical cancer patients, dysplasia progression and regression, cost of treating high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL), and lifetime costs for anal cancer care were extrapolated from the literature. Local costs of anal HPV testing and cytology were obtained. Outcomes included anal cancer rates, anal cancer deaths, screening costs and cancer care. Results: Benefits in the screened group included reduction in anal cancers after three years and anal cancer deaths after four years. After 10 years, predicted costs per anal cancer prevented and anal cancer deaths were $168,796 and $210,057 and were $98,631 and $210,057 at 20 years. Predicted costs per quality of life year saved at 10 and 20 years were $9785 and $1687. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated cost-effectiveness of screening for a variety of cure rates HSIL with electrocautery. Conclusion: Screening for anal HPV and treatment of anal HSIL in patients with cervical cancer is cost-effective, prevents anal cancer and reduces anal cancer deaths.