Statistical Analysis of House Construction Capacity Dynamics in ex-USSR Countries

Abstract

The relevance of the article is explained by the necessity of building more precise forecasts of developing socio-economic phenomena characterizing complex dynamics. The goal lies in analyzing the dynamics of launching of residential units in the post-Soviet countries and building a forecast with the account of the retrospective path movement of the indicator. The appliance of the “changing the growth (fall)” econometric model in the studied time-series has allowed to predict in a more precise way their path movement. The significance of the obtained results both for econometrics and residential property market economy are apparent and lie in mastering the methodology of building complex socio-economic phenomena, among which is the launching of residential units in the post-Soviet countries.

Keywords

• dynamics
• housing
• historical time-series
• periodization
• forecasting
• econometric modeling.