Comparing the Change in <i>R</i>₀ for the COVID-19 Pandemic in Eight Countries Using an SIR Model for Specific Periods

Abstract

The reproduction number, R0, is an important parameter in epidemic models. It is interpreted as the average number of new cases resulted from each infected individual during the course of infection. In this paper, the R0 estimates since the outbreak of COVID-19 till 10 August 2020 for eight countries were computed using the package R{eSIR}. The computed values were examined and compared with the daily R0 estimates obtained by a static SIR model by aligning the days of infection, assuming a fixed number of days for the infected person to become confirmed/recover/die. The results showed that running R{eSIR} to obtain R0 estimates provided an easy mean of exploring epidemic data. Care must be taken in the interpretation of R0 as a measure of severity of the spread of an epidemic. Other factors, such as imported cases, need to be considered.

Keywords

• epidemic
• SIR
• confirmed
• deaths
• recovered
• R{eSIR}