Commodity Market Funds – the Only Ones Suitable for a Polish Investor in the Conditions of Rising Inflation and Increased Interest Rates?

Abstract

Theoretical background: The order to assess the suitability and adequacy of financial instruments by producers and distributors of investment products was introduced with the first Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID). In conditions of high inflation, it is justified to assess the suitability of investment products in terms of protection of the real value of capital. Purpose of the article: The research aims to indicate which groups (or subgroups) of open-ended investment funds (distinguished according to the investment policy) were suitable for an investor whose financial goal was to protect the real value of capital in the period of rising inflation and increased interest rates in Poland. Research methods: Nominal and real HPY from funds managed by Polish investment fund companies (TFI) and foreign funds were examined in two investment horizons: one-year (1 May 2021 – 1 May 2022) and half-year (1 December 2021 – 1 May 2022). Two research hypotheses were formulated: 1) commodity funds were the suitable funds for the investor, whose aim was to protect the real value of capital in the analyzed period; 2) other types of funds (than commodity funds) were not suitable for an investor whose purpose was to protect the real value of capital. Two main criteria were used to assess the suitability of the (sub)group of funds. For an investor aiming for complete protection of the real value of capital, these were: 1) the percentage of funds with non-negative real HPY and 2) the minimum value of real HPY in the (sub)group. For an investor who only needs partial real capital value protection, these were: the percentage of funds with a positive nominal HPY and the minimum value of the nominal HPY in the (sub)group. Main findings: The first research hypothesis has been positively verified. If the investor’s goal was total protection of the real value of capital in each researched horizon, the second research hypothesis can be considered positively verified. However, if the suitability criteria do not have to be met for each of the horizons studied, or if the investor’s satisfactory objective was partial protection of the real value of capital, then the second hypothesis should be rejected.

Keywords

• inflation hedge
• commodity funds
• tactical allocation
• suitability assessment
• poland