Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Low Albumin-Bilirubin Grade in TACE Combined with Ablation: A Random Forest Cox Predictive Model

Abstract

Yiqi Xiong,1,* Wenying Qiao,2,3,* Tingting Mei,1,* Kang Li,4 Ronghua Jin,2,3 Yonghong Zhang1 1Interventional Therapy Center for Oncology, Beijing You’an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, People’s Republic of China; 2National Center for Infectious Diseases, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100015, People’s Republic of China; 3Changping Laboratory, Beijing, 102206, People’s Republic of China; 4Research center for biomedical Resources, Beijing You’an Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Yonghong Zhang, Interventional therapy center for oncology; Beijing You’an Hospital, Capital Medical University, 8 Xitoutiao, Youanmenwai Street, Fengtai District, Beijing, Tel [phone], Email [email protected] Ronghua Jin, National center for infectious diseases, Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, 8 Jingshundong Street, Chaoyang District, Beijing, Tel [phone], Email [email protected]: The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship between albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade and recurrence in patients who underwent TACE sequential ablation. We developed and validated a nomogram to predict low levels of ALBI patients’ recurrence.Patients and Methods: A total of 880 patients undergoing TACE combined ablation at Beijing Youan Hospital from January 2014 to December 2021 were retrospectively enrolled, including 415 patients with L-ALBI (≤-2.6) and 465 patients with high levels (>-2.6) of ALBI (H-ALBI). L-ALBI patients were randomized in a 7:3 ratio into the training cohort (N=289) and validation cohort (N=126). Multivariate Cox regression followed by random survival forest was carried out to identify independent risk factors for prediction nomogram construction. An examination of nomogram accuracy was performed using the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. According to the nomogram, the patients were divided into low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups. Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves were applied to compare the difference in recurrence-free survival (RFS) among the three groups.Results: The median RFS in L-ALBI patients was significantly longer than the H-ALBI patients (40.8m vs 20.1m, HR:1.71, 95% CI:1.44– 2.04, P< 0.0001). The nomogram was composed of five variables, such as age, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, globulin, gamma-glutamyl transferase to lymphocyte ratio (GLR), and international normalized ratio (INR). The C-index (0.722 and 0.731) and 1-, 3-, and 5-year AUCs (0.725, 0.803, 0.870, and 0.764, 0.816, 0.798) of the training and validation cohorts proved the good predictive performance of the nomogram. Calibration curves and DCA curves demonstrated good consistency and good clinical utility. There were significant differences in RFS between the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups (P< 0.0001).Conclusion: L-ALBI Patients who underwent TACE combined ablation had better recurrence-free survival than patients with H-ALBI. The nomogram developed and validated in our study had good predictive ability in recurrence for L-ALBI patients.Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, HCC, ablation, nomogram, recurrence, albumin-bilirubin, ALBI

Keywords

• hepatocellular carcinoma
• hcc
• ablation
• nomogram
• recurrence
• albumin-bilirubin
• albi