A dynamical study of SARS-COV-2: A study of third wave

Abstract

The coronavirus still an epidemic in most countries of the world and put the people in danger with so many infected cases and death. Considering the third wave of corona virus infection and to determine the peak of the infection curve, we suggest a new mathematical model with reported cases from March 06, 2021, till April 30, 2021. The model provides an accurate fitting to the suggested data, and the basic reproduction number calculated to be R0=1.2044. We study the stability of the model and show that the model is locally as well as globally asymptotically stable when R0<1, for the disease free case. The parameters that are sensitive to the basic reproduction number, their effect on the model variables are shown graphically. We can observe that the suggested parameters can decrease efficiently the infection cases of the third wave in Pakistan. Further, our model suggests that the infection peak is to be May 06, 2021. The present results determine that the model can be useful in order to predict other countries data.

Keywords

• SARS-COV2
• Mathematical model
• Third wave reported cases
• Stability results
• Numerical simulations