Machine Learning with Applications (Jun 2023)
Time to Die 2: Improved in-game death prediction in Dota 2
Abstract
Competitive video game playing, an activity called esports, is increasingly popular to the point that there are now many professional competitions held for a variety of games. These competitions are broadcast in a professional manner similar to traditional sports broadcasting. Esports games are generally fast paced, and due to the virtual nature of these games, camera positioning can be limited. Therefore, knowing ahead of time where to position cameras, and what to focus a broadcast and associated commentary on, is a key challenge in esports reporting. This gives rise to moment-to-moment prediction within esports matches which can empower broadcasters to better observe and process esports matches. In this work we focus on this moment-to-moment prediction and in particular present techniques for predicting if a player will die within a set number of seconds for the esports title Dota 2. A player death is one of the most consequential events in Dota 2. We train our model on ‘telemetry’ data gathered directly from the game itself, and position this work as a novel extension of our previous work on the challenge. We use an enhanced dataset covering 9,822 Dota 2 matches. Since the publication of our previous work, new dataset parsing techniques developed by the WEAVR project enable the model to track more features, namely player status effects, and more importantly, to operate in real time. Additionally, we explore two new enhancements to the original model: one data-based extension and one architectural. Firstly we employ learnt embeddings for categorical features, e.g. which in game character a player has selected, and secondly we explicitly model the temporal element of our telemetry data using recurrent neural networks. We find that these extensions and additional features all aid the predictive power of the model achieving an F1 score of 0.54 compared to 0.17 for our previous model (on the new data). We improve this further by experimenting with the length of the time-series in the input data and find using 15 time steps further improves the F1 score to 0.62. This compares to F1 of 0.1 for a standard RNN on the same task. Additionally a deeper analysis of the Time to Die model is carried out to assess its suitability as a broadcast aid.
