Renmin Zhujiang (Jan 2025)
Time-Series Analysis of Deformation and Induced Factors of Reservoir Landslide Deposits
Abstract
The major hydropower projects are significantly influenced by triggering factors such as heavy rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations, which affect the deformation and stability of landslide deposits on reservoir banks. These factors exhibit long-term spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, making the risk management and prevention of reservoir bank landslide disasters extremely challenging. To elucidate the influence mechanisms of heavy rainfall, reservoir water levels, and groundwater level changes on the deformation evolution of landslide deposits in reservoir areas, this paper selected the Donglingxin landslide deposit in the Sanbanxi Hydropower Station on the Qingshui River as the research subject. Based on time-series monitoring data of landslide deposit deformation, rainfall, reservoir water levels, groundwater levels, and other trigging factors, an autoregressive model was employed to conduct dynamic prediction research on the deformation of the Donglingxin landslide deposit. The single-factor autoregressive time-series model was extended to a multi-factor vector autoregressive model, enabling impulse response analysis of the time-series relationship between reservoir landslide deposit deformation and triggering factors. The research results indicate that monthly rainfall has a greater impact on the displacement of the Donglingxin landslide deposit compared to groundwater and reservoir water levels, and it exhibits a strong lag effect. However, over time, the influence gradually diminishes, and the displacement changes tend to stabilize. The findings provide a theoretical basis and scientific reference for the prevention, control, monitoring, and early warning of reservoir landslides.
