Towards a System Dynamics Model on Risk Factors of Knee Osteoarthritis: A Study Protocol for the DYNAMIKOS Model

Abstract

(1) Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a serious chronic disease mostly affecting the knee joint. Despite the many efforts for developing strategies to predict and control Knee Osteoarthritis (KOA), the disease is on the rise. This paper describes the process for the creation of a simulation model, the Dynamic Knee Osteoarthritis Simulation (DYNAMIKOS) model, that captures the complex interrelationships of the risk factors for the development of KOA; (2) Methods: The DYNAMIKOS model will be based on the System Dynamics approach. The first step will be to develop a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) model for the risk factors involved incorporating a series of Group Modeling Building (GMB) workshops with experts and stakeholders. Using data from a representative sample of KOA patients, the statistical approaches Exploratory Factor Analysis, Confirmatory Factor Analysis, and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) will be carried out. (3) Results: This study will develop a simulation System Dynamics model for the risk factors of KOA based on the results of CLD and SEM; (4) Conclusions: The proposed DYNAMIKOS model could be used for effectively analyzing the complex interrelationships among the multiple factors that constitute the spread of KOA. In this way, plausible prevention strategies could be implemented for effectively managing and leading the potential eradication of KOA.

Keywords

• knee osteoarthritis
• risk factors
• prevention strategies
• systems thinking
• system dynamics