Dryland hydroclimatic response to large tropical volcanic eruptions during the last millennium

Abstract

Abstract Drylands are highly vulnerable to climate change due to their fragile ecosystems and limited ability to adapt. In contrast to the global drying after tropical volcanic eruptions shown previously, we demonstrate that large tropical volcanic eruptions can induce significant two-year hydroclimatic wetting over drylands by employing the last millennium simulations. During this wetting period, which extends from the first to the third boreal winter after the eruption, several hydroclimatic indicators, such as self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index based on the Penman-Monteith equation for potential evapotranspiration (scPDSIpm), standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), aridity index (AI), top-10cm soil moisture (SM10cm), and leaf area index (LAI), show significant positive anomalies over most drylands. The primary contribution to the wetting response is the potential evapotranspiration (PET) reduction resulting from dryland surface cooling and reduced solar radiation, as well as a weak contribution from increased precipitation. The latter is due to the wind convergence into drylands caused by slower tropical cooling compared to drylands. The wetting response of drylands to volcanic eruptions also demonstrates some benefits over the global hydrological slowdown resulting from stratospheric aerosol injection, which replicates the cooling effects of volcanic eruptions to address global warming.