Scientific Reports (Jan 2025)

Derivation and validation of a prediction model for inadequate bowel preparation in Chinese outpatients

  • Huifang Yin,
  • Yan Wang,
  • Hangfang Wang,
  • Tian Li,
  • Xiangxiang Xu,
  • Fengyu Li,
  • Lihua Huang

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85816-3
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 15, no. 1
pp. 1 – 13

Abstract

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Abstract The quality of bowel preparation is an important factor in the success of colonoscopy. However, multiple influencing factors that function together can lead to inadequate bowel preparation. The main objective of this study was to explore the specific factors that affect the quality of bowel preparation, with the goal of deriving and validating a predictive model for inadequate bowel preparation in Chinese outpatients. A prospective observational study. We conducted a prospective study in a tertiary hospital in Zhejiang Province that included elective colonoscopy outpatients treated between December 15, 2022 and August 12, 2023. Clinical data related to the patient characteristics and patient bowel preparation were collected to analyze the risk factors of inadequate bowel preparation in outpatients. The quality of bowel preparation was assessed by using the Boston bowel preparation scale (BBPS). Inadequate bowel preparation was defined as a total BBPS score of 5 h (OR = 2.471, 95% CI: 1.814–3.366) were independent risk factors. We derived a model to identify patients with inadequate cleansing by using data from patients in the derivation cohort and tested it in the validation cohort. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.704 (95% CI: 0.667–0.741), with a calibration value of p = 0.632 in the derivation cohort. Bootstrap cross-validation showed a good model calibration condition. For the validation cohort, the AUC was 0.704 (95% CI: 0.628–0.779), and the calibration value was p = 0.376. We identified the influencing factors of outpatient bowel cleansing that are associated with patient clinical characteristics and bowel preparation-related behaviors. A model was constructed and validated to identify patients who were at high risk of inadequate bowel preparation by using six simple variables, which included male sex, diabetes, constipation, history of colorectal surgery, a high fiber diet used at 24 h prior to examination, and PC > 5 h. The clinical decision curve showed that the constructed prediction model has some clinical utility based on results from the derivation cohort and validation cohort.

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