Stock return-inflation nexus; revisited evidence based on nonlinear ARDL

Abstract

Understanding the Stock Return-Inflation Nexus is a continuing concern among scholars. The main goal of the current study was to critically examine the view that the relation between stock return and inflation is potentially asymmetric. To capture the possibility of dynamic nonlinearity and, in turn, asymmetry, the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed lag model (NARDL) was deployed. This study has identified that the responses of stock return are generally asymmetric. In other words, the results suggest that contractionary time appears to reduce the stock returns more than expansionary time does.

Keywords

• stock return
• inflationary regimes
• economic cycle phase
• nonlinear ardl
• g7 countries