Electron radiation belt safety indices based on the SafeSpace modelling pipeline and dedicated to the internal charging risk

Abstract

In this paper, we present the SafeSpace prototype for a safety warning system, dedicated to the electron radiation-belt-induced internal charging hazard aboard spacecraft. The space weather tool relies on a synergy of physical models associated in a chain that covers the whole Sun–interplanetary-space–Earth's inner magnetosphere medium. With the propagation of uncertainties along the modelling pipeline, the safety prototype provides a global nowcast and forecast (within a 4 d lead time) of the electron radiation belt dynamic as well as tailored indicators for space industry operators. They are meant to inform the users about the severity of the electron space environment via a three-coloured alarm system, which sorts the index intensity according to a representative historical distribution of in situ data. The system was tested during the challenging 2015 St Patrick's Day storm in order to assess its performance. It showed overall good nowcasting and forecasting capabilities due to its broad physics-driven pipeline.