Climate change will drive mammal species loss and biotic homogenization in the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change has been shown to be one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity. However, few studies have considered its effects on whole communities. Here, using ecological niche models (ENM) and projected future climate scenarios, we analyzed how these environmental changes could promote reductions in the alpha and beta taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversities of mammals in the Cerrado Biodiversity Hotspot. We found that, on average, species richness tends to decrease in most Cerrado areas under future climate scenarios. However, this pattern is not uniform throughout the biome. Overall, southern Brazilian Cerrado may become biotically homogenized – through the extinction of native specialists and expansion of exotic generalists – in the near future, while the rest of biome may become very heterogeneous in taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional aspects. This scenario is very problematic considering that this region has been highly transformed and fragmented by human activities in the past. Based on our ENM approach of species inhabiting present Cerrado, we provided a more accurate analysis about the effects of anthropogenic and/or natural processes at large scales on the communities for this endangered Biodiversity Hotspot. This information could represent invaluable tool to guide future establishment of new and efficient conservation efforts.

Keywords

• Ecological niche modelling
• Alpha and beta diversity
• Species turnover
• Spatial and temporal beta diversity