À qui profite le temps ?

Abstract

Many scholars describe time as a factor in war. It is particularly the case regarding asymmetric conflicts, in which time is said to favor the weak. As for democracies, the longer the war, the more they are expected to lose. War is a complex process, and it is difficult to know precisely what factors determine its outcomes. Therefore scholars are in a situation of uncertainty. They are able to identify some tendencies, but it is hard to isolate the relevant factors in play. Consequently, rather than untangling those factors, they sometimes argue that time is a factor in itself. Here, time is nothing more than a default concept. In reality, time is on no one’s side. It is not a factor in war, but a dimension in which factors play. This ultimately leads to major confusion when authors attempt to compare the ‘time factor’ to other elements in war, forgetting that time is not located at the same level of analysis. The same problem arises for those who carelessly translate their variable into temporal terms and believe they can measure its relevance thanks to hazardous objectifications.

Keywords

• War
• war outcome
• uncertainty
• time factor
• democracy
• irregular warfare