Development and Validation of a Predictive Model of Hypovitaminosis D in General Adult Population: SCOPYD Study
Marie Viprey,
Blandine Merle,
Benjamin Riche,
Julie Freyssenge,
Pascal Rippert,
Mohammed-Amine Chakir,
Thierry Thomas,
Sandrine Malochet-Guinamand,
Bernard Cortet,
Véronique Breuil,
Roland Chapurlat,
Marie-Hélène Lafage Proust,
Marie-Christine Carlier,
Jean-Baptiste Fassier,
Julie Haesebaert,
Pascal Caillet,
Muriel Rabilloud,
Anne-Marie Schott
Affiliations
Marie Viprey
Research on Healthcare Performance RESHAPE, INSERM U1290, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 69003 Lyon, France
Blandine Merle
INSERM UMR 1033, Université de Lyon, 69000 Lyon, France
Benjamin Riche
Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, 69000 Lyon, France
Julie Freyssenge
Research on Healthcare Performance RESHAPE, INSERM U1290, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 69003 Lyon, France
Pascal Rippert
Hospices Civils de Lyon, Pôle de Sante Publique, 69003 Lyon, France
Mohammed-Amine Chakir
Hospices Civils de Lyon, Pôle de Sante Publique, 69003 Lyon, France
Thierry Thomas
CHU Saint-Etienne, Hôpital Nord, Service de Rhumatologie, INSERM U1059, Laboratoire de Biologie intégrée du Tissu Osseux, Université de Lyon, 42000 Saint-Etienne, France
Sandrine Malochet-Guinamand
CHU Clermont-Ferrand, Hôpital Gabriel Montpied, Service de Rhumatologie, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France
Bernard Cortet
CHRU de Lille, Service de Rhumatologie, 59000 Lille, France
Véronique Breuil
CHU de Nice, Service de Rhumatologie, 06000 Nice, France
Roland Chapurlat
INSERM UMR 1033, Université de Lyon, 69000 Lyon, France
Marie-Hélène Lafage Proust
CHU Saint-Etienne, Hôpital Nord, Service de Rhumatologie, INSERM U1059, Laboratoire de Biologie intégrée du Tissu Osseux, Université de Lyon, 42000 Saint-Etienne, France
Marie-Christine Carlier
Département de Biologie, Centre Hospitalier Lyon-Sud, 69495 Pierre-Bénite, France
Jean-Baptiste Fassier
Hospices Civils de Lyon, Pôle de Sante Publique, 69003 Lyon, France
Julie Haesebaert
Research on Healthcare Performance RESHAPE, INSERM U1290, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 69003 Lyon, France
Pascal Caillet
CHU de Nantes, Unité de Santé Publique Interventionnelle, 44000 Nantes, France
Muriel Rabilloud
Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, 69000 Lyon, France
Anne-Marie Schott
Research on Healthcare Performance RESHAPE, INSERM U1290, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 69003 Lyon, France
The worldwide global increase in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) measurements has led some countries to restrict reimbursement for certain clinical situations only. Another approach could consist in providing physicians with screening tools in order to better target blood test prescription. The objective of the SCOPYD study was to identify the best combination of predictors of serum VitD concentration among adults aged 18–70 years. Potential risk factors for VitD deficiency were collected using a comprehensive self-administered questionnaire. A multivariable linear regression was used to build a predictive model of serum 25(OH)D concentration. Among 2488 participants, 1080 (43.4%) had VitD deficiency (<50 nmol/L) and 195 (7.8%) had severe deficiency (<25 nmol/L). The final model included sunlight exposure in the preceding week and during the last holidays, month of blood sampling, age, sex, body mass index, skin phototype, employment, smoking, sport practice, latitude, and VitD supplementation in preceding year. The area under the curve was 0.82 (95% CI (0.78; 0.85)) for severe deficiency. The model predicted severe deficiency with a sensitivity of 77.9% (95% CI (69.1; 85.7)) and a specificity of 68.3% (95% CI (64.8; 71.9)). We identified a set of predictors of severe VitD deficiency that are easy to collect in routine that may help to better target patients for serum 25(OH)D concentration determination.