Salāmat-i kār-i Īrān (May 2020)
Assessing the risk of crisis in gas distribution networks using the FAHP-PROMETHEE II method (Case study of Qazvin Province Gas Company)
Abstract
Background and Aims: Natural gas is one of the most important energy sources used today in urban communities as cheap and hazardous energy. In this regard, if the government and organizations do not pay attention to the proper infrastructure for gas installations, it will create irreparable risks for that society. The assessment and management of crisis in the various processes can play a key role in the planning, organization and training of the target community. Today, the importance of increasing crisis management is not overlooked. Social and HSE crisis are the most important issues in the gas company. Crisis management results can be used for educational planning and resource management. Also, using the results of the crisis assessment can identify the weak points of the organization. Identifying weaknesses within an organization enables management to regulate the organizationchr('39')s strategies based on them and reduce the impact of the crisis effectively. The assessment of the risk of gas pipelines will be assessed by various criteria, such as the environment of the gas supply network and the social conditions surrounding the gas supply network. In the event of a crisis in gas distribution networks, the best way to prevent an increase in the crisis in urban and industrial areas is to ensure a rapid shutdown of gas transmission. The responsible organizations should use high-reliability facilities and equipment to reduce the crisis in the failure of the gas transmission lines in the network. The technical status of the gas supply pipelines and their maintenance are among other criteria for assessing the gas supply risk. Crisis in gas networks can have irreparable effects due to the direct connection of the network with residents of cities. The crisis in the gas supply network is causing fire and explosion and poisoning, but it can also lead to social crises. Since the gas company is a social institution. Its problems can affect the community. Therefore, the crisis management issue in the gas supply network is very important. Qazvin Gas Company is a government organization with more than 350,000 shareholders and customers in the province. The inadequate and old infrastructure has put the risk of crisis in this provincechr('39')s gas distribution network as unacceptable. Such organizations need to invest in building a strategic thinking in crisis management on how to design and deliver services to their customers. The purpose of this research is to determine and rank critical factors and assess the risk of crisis in gas distribution networks. Method: In this research, three types of major crises associated with gas supply networks were identified by using reliable sources and expertschr('39') opinion. An expert is someone who has a BSE degree in Industrial Engineering or HSE, as well as 10 years of experience in the gas industry. Toxicity, fire - explosion and social problems are the most important gas grid crisis. then 11 criticality indicators were defined for assessing the risk of crisis in gas network. Decision-making criteria in this study include: health problems, mortality, political problems, costs of line reconstruction, groundwater contamination, cost of stopping services, damage to people in the region, air pollution, reduced income, lack of trust in the organization, Fear and horror. In this study, FAHP technique and the FROMETHEEII fuzzy technique for ranking were used. One of the most efficient and comprehensive techniques for deciding multiple indicators is the َ analytical hierarchical process. It was first raised by Thomas L Satty in 1980. This method has many uses in solving managerial, economic and social problems. This method allows the formulation of the problem in a hierarchical manner. It is also possible to consider different quantitative and qualitative indices in problem solving. In this process, different options are involved in decision making and it is possible to analyze the sensitivity of indicators and sub-indicators. This process based on paired comparisons facilitates judgment and indicates the degree of compatibility and incompatibility of the decision. PROMETHEE was designed in 1985 by Branc & Vincke. It was developed by colleagues in 1994. This method can be called the "Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation", which, as it is known from the name, seeks to structurally address problems and use the actual values of the criteria for evaluation. Using the FAHP results, the weight determines the importance of each of the critical factors in gas networks. Using the results of the PROMETHEE, we can determine the weight and rank of contributing factor and sub contributing Factor of crisis risk for the gas network. Then using the obtained results, the grid risk assessment model was presented. The crisis risk assessment model is designed considering the importance of the type of crisis scenario. The proposed model is: where in: SN is level of severity of risk of crisis; Stox is level of Toxic severity of risk; Wtox is the weight of toxic severity of risk; Sex is level of explosive severity of risk; Wex is the weight of explosive severity; Scut is level of severity of Cut off gas network and Wcut is the weight of cut off gas network. Using the proposed model, the gas network of Qazvin province was evaluated as a case study. The results of mean and standard deviation were used to analyze the results. In order to confirm the validity and reliability of the questionnaires, the literature review and other questionnaires were used. Then, the questionnaire was adjusted and after the insertion of the necessary information, for content validity, was given to the experts. Following the necessary amendments, the original questionnaires were set up and approved by the experts. The reliability of the questionnaires was assessed using Cronbachchr('39')s alpha. For this purpose, after answering all the experts, the reliability of the questionnaires was calculated using SPSS software, which is about α = 0.74. According to the results, reliability of the questionnaire is reliable. In order to collect the data, the researchers examined the study environment and completed the checklist. Results: The results showed that the crises created in relation to the gas network with weight importance are not equal. So that the social crisis caused by the disruption of gas in the urban gas supply network is more important. The results showed that the crises created in relation to the gas network were not equal to the weight. So that the social crisis caused by disruption of gas in the urban gas supply network is more important than the crisis caused by Toxicity and explosion. This is due to the fact that poisoning and explosion can also lead to social crises that have a cumulative effect on the social crisis caused by the disruption of gas. The results showed that the most important crisis in the gas company was a definite gas. Also, the results showed that the main criteria in the risk of gas distribution network crisis are: proximity to residential buildings, population density, proximity to industrial towns, and the existence of vulnerable network conditions. The conditions of different regions of the case study showed that the best conditions for the gas supply network in the 3rd district are due to the low number of residential buildings, low population density, distance from industrial settlements, and the absence of vulnerable conditions. Conclusion: Several studies in recent years have found that the failure of the gas line is the main cause of the gas grid crisis. The main reason for this is the placement of pipes in the gas network and its regulators on the roads of cars and individuals. In these studies, gas regulators are classified as one of the most vulnerable parameters in the crisis assessment. Also, the main reason for the gas supply crisis in many studies is the structural weakness of the network and network vulnerability. Also, in some studies, environmental conditions and type of use around the gas distribution network are described as contributing factors of the risk of gas pipeline leakage and vulnerability factors in the gas distribution network. The main reason for definite gas as a crisis in the gas network is the use of the gas network in residential homes, which is the case in countries like Iran. According to the results of this study, it was determined that for assessing the risk of crisis in gas networks, it is necessary to determine the crisis factors and to integrate them in order to determine the risk of crisis in the gas network. In the risk assessment process, the impact of personal judgment of the evaluators on determining the risk level of a process is very important. In this research, using decision making models has been tried to minimize the impact of personal judgment of evaluators. One of the most important results in this study was the existence of social crises due to the cut off gas distribution networks. Therefore, the definitive gas crisis is of great importance. This is most common in developing countries that use natural gas in final consumers for heating and cooking. Therefore, this indicates that the government in these countries is required to invest from gas to electricity in order to prevent social crises, to reform the process of gas consumption and change energy consumption in homes and commercial and office facilities. The assessment of social crises is a new aspect of this research that has not been addressed in other researches.
