An analysis method of DPV hosting capacity interval in distribution networks under uncertainties

Abstract

The large-scale integration of distributed photovoltaics （DPVs） has a profound impact on the secure and stable operation of distribution networks. Analysis and assessment on DPV hosting capacity can effectively assist in its rational planning and utilization. To this end， an method for analyzing the DPV hosting capacity interval is proposed to calculate the maximum DPV integration capacity in distribution networks under uncertainties. Firstly， the DPV output uncertainties are quantified by means of nonparametric kernel density estimation based on the historical data， and the DPV output interval is calculated by Newton-Raphson method. Secondly， a DPV hosting capacity interval analysis model for distribution networks considering safe operation constraints is established， which is then decomposed into an optimistic submodel and a pessimistic submodel based on interval analysis theory. Then， to reduce the difficulty of model solution， the pessimistic sub-model is simplified by the equivalence transformation， and the two sub-models are solved separately to obtain the interval solution. Finally， simulation analysis is carried out in the improved 15-node distribution system and a distribution network in Lishui， Zhejiang Province. The results verify the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method.

Keywords

• distribution network
• dpv
• hosting capacity analysis
• uncertainty analysis
• interval optimization