Prediction of landfalling Bay of Bengal cyclones during 2013 using the high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting model

Abstract

Abstract The present study investigated the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in the forecast/simulation of five landfalling Bay of Bengal (BoB) cyclones during 2013. A 3D variational (3DVar) method of data assimilation of the WRF model was used to assimilate the Global Telecommunication System and satellite radiances to improve the initial conditions. The results demonstrated that the model has the ability to simulate the cyclone track, intensity and structure. The study also indicates that predicted storm track, landfall and intensity improved with the 3DVar technique compared to without it. This was due to better initial conditions in the 3DVar experiment. The predicted track errors of the five storms were compared to available global and regional forecasting systems and the results show that the model has the capability for prediction of cyclones over the BoB region. The forecasted mean track errors were about 70, 114, 182 and 184 km; minimum centre pressure was about 8, 10, 13, 13 hPa and maximum surface wind was about 6, 10, 9, 8 m·s−1 on day 1 to day 4 forecast respectively. The study also presents some of the important predicted diagnostic parameters such as temperature anomaly, divergence, heating rate, frozen hydrometeors, vorticity field, equivalent potential temperature, maximum reflectivity, accumulated rainfall and horizontal wind fields compared to available observations for the extremely severe cyclonic storm Phailin. The warm core structure of the Phailin cyclone was resolved in the model between 9 and 15 km compared to satellite observations. The statistical analysis, distribution and magnitude of forecasted accumulated rainfall are also compared to the rainfall of 174 automatic weather stations.

Keywords

• 3DVar
• BoB
• landfalling
• Phailin
• track
• WRF