Balancing Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, and Sequestration: A Multi-Objective Spatial Optimization in Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area in China

Abstract

As China’s “Dual Carbon” strategy is implemented and the new urbanization advances, balancing economic development, emission reduction, and carbon sequestration has become an important issue during the growth of emerging metropolitan areas, and it is also important for achieving high-quality urban development. Therefore, this study had three major objective functions: economic growth, carbon emission reduction, and increased carbon storage. The multi-objective land use quantity structure was solved using the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), and the best solution in the solution set was introduced using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for evaluation. Finally, combined with the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, the low-carbon evolution of the metropolitan area was predicted on a spatial scale. The trade-off plan results show that by 2035, the economic benefits will reach CNY 7.65 trillion, carbon emissions will be kept under 99.24 million tons, and carbon storage will steadily increase by 15.2 million tons. Therefore, optimizing land use from the perspective of balancing carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, and economic development can provide valuable references for planning low-carbon development and the rational use of spatial resources in future metropolitan areas.

Keywords

• multi-objective optimization
• low-carbon development
• multi-model composite
• Zhengzhou metropolitan area
• China
• Land use-cover change