Unfolding the Transmission Dynamics of Monkeypox Virus: An Epidemiological Modelling Analysis

Abstract

Monkeypox (mpox) is a zoonotic viral disease that has caused recurring outbreaks in West Africa. The current global mpox virus (mpoxv) epidemic in endemic and non-endemic areas has seriously threatened public health. In this study, we design an SEIR-based deterministic model that considers prodromal stage, differential infectivity, and hospitalisation to investigate the transmission behaviour of mpoxv, which could help enhance control interventions. The model is theoretically analyzed by computing essential epidemiological quantities/dynamics, such as the basic reproduction number, which estimates the number of secondary infections caused by a typical primary case in an entirely susceptible community. Stability of the model’s equilibrium states is examined to evaluate the transmission potential of the mpoxv. Furthermore, partial rank correlation coefficient was adopted for sensitivity analysis to determine the top-rank model’s parameters for controlling the spread of mpoxv. Moreover, numerical simulations and model predictions are performed and are used to evaluate the influence of some crucial model parameters that help in strengthening the prevention and control of mpoxv infection.

Keywords

• monkeypox virus
• epidemic
• infectious diseases
• mathematical modelling
• stability analysis