THE SYSTEM OF HYBRID FORECAST MODELS FOR SYTUATIONAL CENTERS OF REGIONAL ADMINISTRATION BODIES AND THEIR APPLICATION IN EDUCATION

Abstract

The efficient system of state strategic management provides a foundation for competitive economy. State governance of the Russian Federation includes a monitoring system, which ensures successful implementation of strategic plans at all levels. Monitoring covers analysis of the situation and building short-term forecasts of the development. The article presents hybrid model and software tools for short-term forecasting of social and economic indices in Russia. The system of hybrid forecast models embraces a complex of regressive models and extending totality of models, including artificial neuron networks, solution trees, etc. Regressive models consist of regressive equation systems describing behavior of forecast indices of Russian economy in the national accounts system. Functioning of the equation system is led by fixed expert-scenario conditions. Those indices, whose quantitative forecasts cannot be built by regressive models, will be forecast by the module of intellectual models. The principle system advantages are its openness and adaptability. It can be introduced in situational regional and municipal centers. An important direction in the education process is the development of advanced methods of teaching based on analyzing and modeling economic situations. The authors propose to apply their forecast system in the Situational Center of the Russian Plekhanov University of Economics to train students and conduct research work.

Keywords

• forecast system
• hybrid models
• situation centers
• regional development
• higher education