One Year After Jake Sullivan’s Speech at the Arms Control Association: The White House Arms Control Initiative Through Harvard’s Negotiation Lens

Abstract

In a speech on 2 June 2023, Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Adviser, expressed willingness to engage in nuclear arms control discussions with Russia “without preconditions”. Although the offer was rejected by Moscow, the White House initiative provides with a “textbook case” for the theory of negotiation. Through the use of the Harvard Negotiation Method, this paper sets out the theoretical interests of Russia and the United States in engaging in arms control discussion, in particular the explicit intention of both sides to prevent nuclear escalation and avoid an arms race. It then explains why, in reality, these interests diverge over the broader security landscape, including the US support for Ukraine. This contribution outlines US and Russia’s alternatives to negotiation, possible common ground in the area of “damage-limitation” efforts, as well as creative options for mutual gain. The authors ask why the US attempt to “compartmentalize” arms control, grounded on the Cold War tradition, has failed to convince Russia. They offer practical recommendations to facilitate constructive dialogue and progress in arms control discussions, building on lessons learned from the current “dialogue of the deaf”.

Keywords

• Harvard Negotiation Method
• new START
• nuclear arms control
• Ukraine