Burden of Lung Cancer Attributable to Occupational Carcinogens from 1990 to 2019 and Projections until 2044 in China

Abstract

Background: Little is known about trends in the lung cancer burden from the disease that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens in China. Methods: Data regarding the lung cancer burden that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis and an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis were conducted to estimate the trend of lung cancer burden as a result of occupational carcinogens from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian APC model was used to predict the disease burden until 2044. Results: The average annual percentage changes of age-standardized summary exposure values (SEVs) of occupational lung carcinogens, as well as the age-standardized population attributable fraction (PAF) of lung cancer due to occupational carcinogens, were 0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.4–0.5%) and 0.1% (95% CI: 0–0.2%), respectively. In addition, both the joinpoint regression analysis and APC analysis demonstrated significantly increased trends of age-standardized lung cancer mortality (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) as a result of occupational carcinogens. Asbestos and silica accounted for the two most important occupational lung carcinogens in China. The absolute burden is expected to increase, mainly due to population aging and the age-specific rate of illness. Conclusions: The lung cancer burden that could be attributed to occupational carcinogens significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 in China, and the absolute burden will continue to increase in the next 25 years.

Keywords

• lung cancer
• disease burden
• occupational carcinogen
• age-period cohort analysis
• decomposition analysis