Results in Physics (Aug 2021)
Estimating the reproduction number and designing the integrated strategies against dengue
Abstract
Dengue poses social and economic burden in the world. Around 390 million cases have been identified with 96 millions showing clinical symptoms. Vector control methods have been widely used as strategies against dengue. The newly proposed methods, which are currently under investigation, are by the use of vaccine and Wolbachia bacterium. Research to assess their impact on dengue transmission dynamics needs to be conducted before they are publicly implemented. In this paper, the performance of integrated strategies for dengue control using vector controls, vaccine and Wolbachia bacterium has been explored by the use of a mathematical model. The reproduction number, the key quantity to measure the endemic level, has been calculated based on dengue incidence data of Kupang City, Indonesia. An optimal control approach has been applied to investigate the performance of these strategies overtime. We also perform a global sensitivity analysis using the combination of Latin Hypercube Sampling and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient to determine the influential parameters on the reproduction number and an increase number of dengue cases. The results showed that the dengue reproduction number in Kupang city, Indonesia varies between 1.27 to 2.02, which reflects the reality that dengue is still endemic in Kupang city, Indonesia. The results of sensitivity analysis suggest that the vector control holds an important role in determining the reproduction number. Reduction in the reproduction number would be obtained when the rate of vector control is high. Numerical solutions of the model showed that the combination of vaccine and vector control is sufficient to minimize the dengue incidence. Furthermore, to reach an optimal result, the vector control on adult mosquitoes should be implemented for the entire time period. Our results suggest that although vaccine may be available near future, the implementation of vector control is still required. However, further research needs to be undertaken to assess the impact of the integrated strategies on secondary infections.
