A Decrease in the Daily Maximum Temperature during Global Warming Hiatus Causes a Delay in Spring Phenology in the China–DPRK–Russia Cross-Border Area

Abstract

Spring phenology is the most sensitive indicator of climate change and exploring its response to climate change has important implications for ecosystem processes in the study area. The temperature changes before and after the global warming hiatus may affect the spatiotemporal pattern of land surface phenology. In this paper, taking the China–DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea)–Russia cross-border region as an example, based on GIMMS NDVI data, the Polyfit-Maximum method was used to extract the start date of the vegetation growing season (SOS). The variation trend of SOS and its response to climate change were analyzed in the early (1982–1998) and late (1998–2015) periods of the warming hiatus. At the regional scale, the spatial distribution of the SOS in the China–DPRK–Russia (CDR) cross-border area presents an elevation gradient, which is earlier in high-elevation areas and later in low-elevation areas. The temporal and spatial trend of SOS is mainly correlated by daytime maximum temperature (Tmax). The significant increase in Tmax in the early period promoted the advance of SOS (0.47 days/year), and the decrease in Tmax in the later period caused the delay of SOS (0.51 days/year). While the main influencing factor of the SOS changes in the region in the early and late periods was Tmax, the response of the SOS changes in China, DPRK and Russia to climate change also changed with the dramatic temperature changes during the warming hiatus. The Chinese side is increasingly responding to Tmax, while the North Korean side is becoming less responsive to climatic factors, and precipitation and radiation on the Russian side are driving the advance of the SOS.

Keywords

• global warming hiatus
• SOS
• NDVI
• climate change
• China–DPRK–Russia border