Atangana–Baleanu derivative-based fractional model of COVID-19 dynamics in Ethiopia

Abstract

The paper's main aim is to investigate the 2019 coronavirus disease in Ethiopia using a fractional-order mathematical model. It would also focus on the importance of fractional-order derivatives that may help us in modelling the system and understanding the effect of model parameters and fractional derivative orders on the approximate solutions of our model. A SELAIQHCR model is constructed using nonlinear differential equations in the Atangana–Baleanu non-integer operator in the Caputo sense. After that, the Chebyshev fourth kind spectral collocation method is used to change a fractional system to an algebraic system. Newton iterative technique is used to solve the converted system. The next-generation matrix technique is used to obtain the effective reproduction number. The COVID-19-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point, solution positivity and boundedness, and their stability are all carefully done. The sensitivity of the effective reproduction value with respect to the key model parameters is discussed. The beginning values provided for our system were obtained using reports from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute from 29 February 2021 to 7 June 2021. The fundamental reproduction number is obtained with $ \mathfrak {R}_{0} = 1.4331 $ . The model's numerical solutions are represented graphically.

Keywords

• covid-19
• atangana–baleanu fractional derivative
• stability analysis
• chebyshev polynomials of fourth kind
• chebyshev spectral collocation method