Enhancing references evapotranspiration forecasting with teleconnection indices and advanced machine learning techniques

Abstract

Abstract After precipitation, reference evapotranspiration (ETO) plays a crucial role in the hydrological cycle as it quantifies water loss. ETO significantly impacts the water balance and holds great importance at the basin level because of the spatial distribution of managing water resources. Large scale teleconnection indices (LSTIs) play a vital role by influencing climatic variables and can be pivotal in determining ETO and its predictive variables. This study aimed to model and forecast annual ETO in Iran’s basins by utilizing LSTIs and employing various machine learning models (MLMs) such as least squares support vector machine, generalized regression neural network, multi-linear regression (MLR), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP). Initially, climate data from 122 synoptic stations covering six and 30, main and sub basins were collected, and annual ETO values were computed using the Food and Agriculture Organization 56 (PMF 56) Penman–Monteith equation. The correlations between these values and 37 LSTIs were examined within lead times ranging from 7 to 12 months. Through a stepwise approach, the most influential predictor indices (LSTIs) were selected as input datasets for the MLMs. The findings revealed the significant influence of factors such as carbon dioxide (CO2), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Mode, and East Atlantic on annual ETO. Overall, all MLMs performed well in terms of the Scatter Index during both training and testing phases across all sub-basins. Furthermore, the MLP and MLR models displayed superior performance compared to other models in the training and testing evaluations based on various assessment metrics.

Keywords

• Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
• Basins of Iran
• Large-scale teleconnection indices
• Machine learning models
• Reference evapotranspiration