BIST 100'ün Rusya'nın Ukrayna İşgaline Tepkisi: Ekonometrik Bir Analiz(The Reaction of BIST 100 to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: An Econometric Analysis)

Abstract

Financial and political crises, social and political events, epidemics and wars in one part of the world affect all sectors. While global economies are trying to heal the wounds of the Covid 19 epidemic, they have entered a new uncertainty with the Russia-Ukraine war. The war between Russia and Ukraine, which started on February 24, 2022, has different effects on the world economy and financial markets.With this war, oil, energy, food and commodity markets all over the world were adversely affected. Therefore, the expected recovery in the global economy after the Covid 19 epidemic was delayed With the war, the current uncertainty in the economies of the world has deepened. Both the parties to the war and the non-parties are affected by this environment of uncertainty. The Russia-Ukraine war has imposed an economic cost on all countries. In addition, as the war continues in all financial markets, a risk environment has emerged with uncertainty. This study aims to quantify how the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the BIST 100 index. In this study, it was attempted to establish the changes in the BIST 100 Index between 05.08.2021 and 05.09.2022, which covered the time before and after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war on February 24, 2022.Data from investing.com were analyzed in R program in version 4.2.0 "Vigorous Calisthenics". According to the study's findings, some effects of the war on BIST 100 emerged during the period taken into account in the structural break analysis

Keywords

• russia
• ukraine
• occupation
• bist 100
• arima