Integrated energy planning and modeling (IEPM) for sustainable electricity generation in Pakistan:

Abstract

Recent technological advancements demand IEPM for sustainable energy development through the induction of advanced computational techniques. However, the applicability and outcomes of such modeling tools vary due to underlying limitations in addition to gaps within the energy sector. This study uses a three-pronged approach to determine the potential of IEPM in shaping sustainable energy systems, particularly for Pakistan. Findings suggest that the main hindrances in sustainable electricity generation in Pakistan are over dependence upon thermal fuel mix and partial achievement of national energy policy targets. A review of the public sector plans, researches, and historical energy mix of Pakistan affirms that all efforts are targeted towards least cost electricity production without considering social and environmental impacts. All past studies projected energy supply and demand to ascertain future implications, but no one suggested sustainable alternatives for meeting national energy targets. Findings of this study necessitate upon development of a fair, consistent, long-term and sustainable IEP with clear policies to overcome sectoral bottlenecks and attain a high growth trajectory. A review of modeling tools, their applications and limitations, carried out in this study, suggests the adoption of the LEAP model for realistic IEP for Pakistan. This considered LEAP’s strengths in terms of energy-environment nexus, strong-accounting and scenario-building, bottom-up/top-down approach, user-friendliness, and spatial-temporal flexibility.