Use of discrete event simulation and genetic algorithms to estimate the necessary resources to respond in a timely manner in the Medical Emergency System in Bogotá

Abstract

Introduction Bogotá has a Medical Emergency System of public and private ambulances that respond to health incidents. However, its sufficiency in quantity, type and location of the resources demanded is not known. Objective Based on the data from the Medical Emergency System of Bogotá, Colombia, we first sought to characterize the prehospital re- sponse in cardiac arrest and determine with the model which is the least number of resources necessary to respond within eight minutes, taking into account their location, number, and type. Methods A database of incidents reported in administrative records of the district health authority of Bogotá (2014 to 2017) was obtained. Based on this information, a hybrid model based on discrete event simulation and genetic algorithms was designed to establish the amount, type and geographic location of resources according to the frequencies and typology of the events. Results From the database, Bogotá presented 938 671 ambulances dispatches in the period. 47.4% high priority, 18.9% medium and 33.74% low. 92% of these corresponded to 15 of 43 medical emergency codes. The response times recorded were longer than expected, especially in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (median 19 minutes). In the proposed model, the best scenario required at least 281 ambulances, medicalized and basic in a 3:1 ratio, respectively, to respond in adequate time. Conclusions Results suggest the need for an increase in the resources that respond to these incidents to bring these response times to the needs of our population.

Keywords

• emergency medical services
• ambulance reallocation
• ambulance response time
• computer simulation