Pathway planning study based on regional dual-carbon impact analysis and future projections

Abstract

In the global sustainable development, China has taken the lead in proposing the dual-carbon goals of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, and the problem lies in how to find the key influencing factors and construct the future development path based on the influencing factors. This paper takes the southeast coastal region of China as the scope from 2010 to 2020, and first establishes the Kuznets model and the factor decomposition model to analyse the relationship between regional carbon emissions and economic and energy consumption, respectively; then chooses the BP-LSTM model as the basis of predicting future regional carbon emissions; and finally sets up a regional dual-carbon target using scenario analysis to solve the path planning method. The study shows that the relationship between economic development and regional carbon emissions is inverted ‘U’-shaped, and that industrial upgrading and energy decarbonisation in the dual-carbon planning will be conducive to future emission reduction and carbon abatement.

Keywords

• Tapio decoupling
• Kuznets curve
• carbon emission projections
• dual carbon pathway planning