Evaluation of Drought Vulnerability of Maize and Influencing Factors in Songliao Plain Based on the SE-DEA-Tobit Model

Abstract

Rain-fed agriculture is easily affected by meteorological disasters, especially drought. As an important factor of risk formation, actively carrying out agricultural drought vulnerability assessments is conducive to improving food security and reducing economic losses. In this study, an SE-DEA model with regional exposure and drought risk as input factors and the maize yield reduction rate and drought-affected area as output factors is established. The aim is to evaluate and zone the drought vulnerability of the maize belt in the Songliao Plain. The results show the following: (1) From 2000 to 2019, the drought vulnerability of maize showed a fluctuating increasing trend. The vulnerability in Harbin and central Jilin Province is high, which is extremely unfavorable for maize production. (2) Comparing the historical disaster data with the drought vulnerability map generated using the SE-DEA model, it could be found that the results obtained using the SE-DEA model are reliable. (3) The Tobit model shows that the proportion of the effective irrigated area is more important to alleviate vulnerability. For drought vulnerability zoning using a cluster analysis, we suggest that regulated deficit irrigation should be actively developed in high-vulnerability areas to ensure maize yield while improving water efficiency. The results of this study can provide a basis for the development of drought mitigation and loss reduction strategies, and they provide new ideas for future research.

Keywords

• super-efficiency data envelopment analysis
• drought
• vulnerability
• Tobit model
• maize